Alt season is cancelled. This week at Bitcoin Prague I talked with @saylor and other billionaires, and I finally understand the MicroStrategy, Metaplanet, and SharpLink Gaming playbooks 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐛𝐨𝐫𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐝𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐚𝐫𝐬 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐭𝐨𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐫𝐨𝐰 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐮𝐲 𝐁𝐢𝐭𝐜𝐨𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐨𝐝𝐚𝐲. Let me explain: Retail still thinks: "How much Bitcoin can I buy with the dollars I have?" Meaning, you view the chart like this: Institutions realized that the endgame is Bitcoin, but they hold dollars. They think: "How many dollars can I borrow to buy as much Bitcoin as possible?" They know the dollar is going to zero. Smart money views the chart like this: Rather than borrowing money directly, Bitcoin treasury companies issue shares, raising tax-free dollars that they can immediately sell for BTC. There are a few other strategies these companies are pursuing, such as Bitcoin Bonds and dollar-denominated yield accounts funded by Bitcoin appreciation. These appeal to institutions like pension funds and endowments which prefer low-risk, high-yield returns. 𝐈𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐤𝐲? Leverage multiplies your profits, and your losses. However, this strategy is more nuanced than margined leverage. First of all, the fixed-income products like $STRD, $STRF, and $STRK (all yield-bearing products of @Strategy) have varying levels of seniority. This means that in the event of bankruptcy, these preferred stocks and bonds are more likely to remain whole. What about the common equity, $MSTR? If traders sell Bitcoin, they will also sell Microstrategy. While both will drawdown, the assets should be correlated. In a bear market, Saylor can always sell BTC to defend the stock. The share structure allows conversion into Bitcoin, meaning in the worst-case scenario, $MSTR holders can acquire a corresponding amount of $BTC, accounting for the premium. The premium to net asset value, mNAV, measures the ratio of the corporate market cap to Bitcoin holdings. $MSTR's mNAV is around 1.9 today. This means that $1 of $MSTR owns roughly $0.53 of $BTC. Why would anyone buy Strategy over Bitcoin? The argument is that new buys of $MSTR will come in, resulting in real bitcoin yield for prior holders. This is slightly ponzinomic, but it is worth mentioning that while subsequent traders will get diluted, the hypothetical floor here is an mNAV of 1.0, not 0. 𝐌𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐓𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐲 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐞𝐬! While Strategy sits at around 1.9 mNAV, Metaplanet, a Japanese Bitcoin Treasury company, trades at 6-10 mNAV. This is for two reasons: 1) For complicated structural reasons, they can cover their Bitcoin yield faster, thus trading at a higher multiple. 2) The Japanese tax system is set up so that crypto is taxed higher than stock gains. There are also non-Bitcoin treasury companies, like the legendary @ethereumJoseph's $SBET for Ethereum. There are many more like DFDV with Solana and hundreds more springing up across the world. 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐜𝐥𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 First of all, this is not financial advice but is merely my takeaway after Bitcoin Prague. I am still learning here, so if I made any inaccuracies please let me know. I went in skeptical about the longevity of these companies, but I now believe that some legitimate treasury companies will survive and thrive. However, with any gold rush, I am also confident that many will blow up spectacularly. I find this topic super fascinating largely because most of this is completely new to me, but also because very smart and very rich people are taking it seriously. The way I think about it is that this is not a rush to Bitcoin, but a rush away from dollars. I'm considering writing a full article on this topic, so if you're interested let me know! I'm also curious to hear what my followers think. Is this a scam or a 1,000 IQ play? On a personal note, last week VDEX became the first exchange to list $MSTR perps, so if you have a strong opinion on the rise of treasury companies, come take your pick at longing or shorting 🦈

@saylor @0xVDEX is still invite-only, so here are 10 codes to try it out for yourself (with $10 loaded up on each!)

@VictorLeeJW @saylor We listed last Wednesday! Yes it’s a derivative of the stock. VDEX issues the contract up to a certain OI cap. Traders can bet freely LONG or SHORT and the funding rate rebalances. But users can also LP into the Virtual Market Maker which takes the net unbalanced position