$CRCL short thesis:
1) $CRCL only makes money on interest from USDC
2) They give like 70% of all their profit to Coinbase
3) USDC issuance is ~$0 in the last month while USDT is up $4b in market cap
4) Current p/e ratio is 2,600
When you buy $CRCL, you're effectively buying bonds except they get taxed at 70% (by Coinbase) and the underlying dollar amount can go up or down depending on crypto volatility.
It's hard to see how they stay dominant when they need to pay most of their revenue out for distribution purposes. JPM's stablecoin (JPMD) won't have the same issues since they own massive distribution and money already. There isn't much growth to look forward to IMO, especially as more tradfi incumbents see what's happening and want a piece of the action.
I think $CRCL goes to like $6-10b mcap (almost -90%).
I don't really do tradfi stuff but this feels like the first time crypto people have an edge because they actually understand how Circle works. Tradfi is just "OMG LETS LONG STABLECOINS".
CRCL is currently priced as if they had 7 trillion dollars of USDC issued at current interest rates.
11
3.43K
The content on this page is provided by third parties. Unless otherwise stated, OKX is not the author of the cited article(s) and does not claim any copyright in the materials. The content is provided for informational purposes only and does not represent the views of OKX. It is not intended to be an endorsement of any kind and should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell digital assets. To the extent generative AI is utilized to provide summaries or other information, such AI generated content may be inaccurate or inconsistent. Please read the linked article for more details and information. OKX is not responsible for content hosted on third party sites. Digital asset holdings, including stablecoins and NFTs, involve a high degree of risk and can fluctuate greatly. You should carefully consider whether trading or holding digital assets is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.