Had a really great chat with @CloutedMind this week that was the highlight... Truly understands the MSTR playbook and I believe a lot of these MSTR clones will trend to NAV or below NAV because they lack the fundamental understanding of how to create volatility premium.
Thinking about this a bit more, and why we have premiums to NAV:
This isnât just a risk-on or BTC access trade â itâs a volatility premium trade.
When investors buy MSTR convertibles, theyâre not simply looking for Bitcoin exposure. What theyâre really doing is capturing the embedded option value: a structured product that gives them the ability to participate in upside while collecting yield and limiting downside. The real driver of value here is the volatility of the underlying token, not its price.
The strategy revolves around convertible arbitrage. Investors delta hedge the equity exposure (e.g. shorting MSTR) against the convertible. As the price moves, they adjust their hedge, scalping gamma. This generates profit from the movement itself, regardless of direction.
It becomes a volatility trade, not a directional bet.
That changes the buyer base. You're not just attracting Bitcoin bulls or treasury allocators... you're bringing in vol desks, hedge funds, and structured product traders who specialize in monetizing dislocations between implied and realized volatility.
If all you have is an equity backed by BTC, it would trade near or at NAV, perhaps at a discount due to execution or governance risk. But with a convertible structure, it can consistently trade at a premium â because buyers are pricing in the option value and the opportunity to monetize volatility.
This unlocks a completely different capital base and justifies structurally higher valuations.
The key to making onchain MSTR work is to provide the opportunity to monetize the volatility.
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