So trying to make sense of this post.
I spent the entire evening trying to decode it.
The title is "ownership of Bitcoin follows a power law".
The only "power law" that exists in the data described in the post is the wealth distribution. Read carefully the post. Nothing to do with price itself.
I plotted this "ownership" and it is a rough power law of amount own vs number of users with given amount. This is the straight line he mentions.
How we go from this to price? It is not even a nice straight line, in particular for made up numbers.
Even this makes no sense though:
1) The numbers are completely made up. Real wealth distribution data is based on addresses. Since end of 2009 we had tens of thousands nonzero addresses. He claims 1, 10, 100, 1000 users after well in 2010. We had only 10 users after 1 year? It is almost impossible to make sense of what is described.
2) He goes from ownership to total users in the system.
To calculate total users in the system we would need to know users at all levels of ownership and sum them together. Does he mean 100,000 in July 2011 have at least 3 Bitcoin? It is not clear at all.
3) He has users going up at given amount of time by a factor of 10. These amounts of times are initially close to a 140 days. That is basically S2F model where you go up by equal amount in equal time. The projection is even worse because first users go up by 6 and then by 9.3. As I said before power laws have diminishing returns.
4) He claims price "matches the distribution". How? Prices cannot match a "ownership distribution" given it is not a function of time.
His sequence of users goes up by a factor of 10 initially at regular intervals, and later even accelerates 6x in a year, then 10x in a year. Not a power law. Not sure what is even talking about.
So to summarize the OP simply describes a bunch of made up numbers that are supposed to represent wealth distribution and claims there is a power law in the distribution of this wealth.
The users and price model he claims cannot be a power laws given they don't have diminishing returns.
Notice: this person contacted me 1 year ago, asking me to explain the y axis in my power law graph. He was asking to use dollars like he doesn't understand scientific notation.
So I really doubt he understands what power laws are.
Maybe the X account is not the real Jim618 but he claims to be.


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Obsah na této stránce poskytují třetí strany. Není-li uvedeno jinak, společnost OKX není autorem těchto informací a nenárokuje si u těchto materiálů žádná autorská práva. Obsah je poskytován pouze pro informativní účely a nevyjadřuje názory společnosti OKX. Nejedná se o doporučení jakéhokoli druhu a nemělo by být považováno za investiční poradenství ani nabádání k nákupu nebo prodeji digitálních aktiv. Tam, kde se k poskytování souhrnů a dalších informací používá generativní AI, může být vygenerovaný obsah nepřesný nebo nekonzistentní. Další podrobnosti a informace naleznete v připojeném článku. Společnost OKX neodpovídá za obsah, jehož hostitelem jsou externí weby. Držená digitální aktiva, včetně stablecoinů a tokenů NFT, zahrnují vysokou míru rizika a mohou značně kolísat. Měli byste pečlivě zvážit, zde je pro vás obchodování s digitálními aktivy nebo jejich držení vhodné z hlediska vaší finanční situace.

