I wrote this to my GP @reeeeshy 2 days before ETH ATH in '21 It was dead-on 😔 TLDR: - Eth is a commodity like oil/gas - Last 3 years, we made everything super efficient w/ L2, PoS - Demand for USING commodity is now ultra low - We're speculatively trading... compute power..?

Just like any technology over the last 50 years, compute power gets significantly better over time. Transactions on Eth that used to cost us $100 now cost $0.01 on L2s. This is great for Ethereum and terrible for $eth as an investment asset

I believe that $eth will perpetually be priced more like gasoline or oil, and anyone expecting it to do crazy numbers are banking on pure speculative power.. .. whereas last cycle, we were heavily relying on "burn" in people paying gas to miners & USING eth

We have seen this play out massively this cycle, and it's a big reason that eth just can't pump. The foundation can never say this, but I don't think eth SHOULD pump. Why would anyone want to be betting on speculative compute power? They give that shit away for free at AWS

$eth as a token will only go up so much as it's used, and we've made it incredibly efficient.. and it will only get more efficient. What we should be looking for out of $eth is to put our compute power to work, to get yield out of our compute power.

or, a pair with something people REALLY want. That said, eth will still always be a good proxy to the overall market as an investment asset. as people use crypto, eth should do well. but fundamentally it's working against you as an infinite supply commodity

IMHO this is an even worse look for solana, where you're buying compute power but it works more like the USD than oil in how they reward stakers. what does it mean? I think it means that the infrastructure play where the token is used for gas could be DOA going forward.

infra will only continue to get better, and speculating on commodities ie gas feels futile now. there are so many infra plays to bet on, and only so many dapps to go around I think it means $eth will be more like the price of gasoline, and rarely hit something like $10k

and I'm okay with that. I think it's better for eth and sol that way, too. the issue is that far too often in crypto, the token is the product so lastly, I suspect a pretty big consolidation of apps and infra... going all back to a few places instead of spread thin now

I believe this tweet is very likely to produce the pico bottom, or very well lose to it. I still believe eth has lots of potential for good returns this cycle but let's be honest. we're speculating on AWS credits and compute power gets cheaper every day

if it's just a proxy to usage of crypto (as $coin is imo) then you're better off just buying it when no one is using crypto and selling it when everyone is using crypto hoard oil when no one is driving (impossible irl) sell when demand is thru the roof

this is not a bear post or a "Haha got you, I traded better than you post" because I didn't trade this thought it sucks to realize that it was accurate now tbh but I have peace now knowing that this is the likely outcome for infra tokens