This is the most divided period EVER in crypto!
Bulls thinking we are going on $140k
Bears talking about starting of bear market
I researched all the macro data: Here is what's happening and what will be next🧵👇
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1/ The odd thing about this market isn’t the pullback – it’s how quietly it arrived
Liquidity thinned first, sentiment cracked next, then BTC slid from the mid-$100K range
Nearly $1T vanished, yet the move felt more like a slow leaking pipe than a bursting bubble
2/ Before prices rolled over, on-chain activity shifted early
CDD spiked as some dormant coins moved
aSOPR hovered near 1, and mid-term holders became the main sellers
Strangely, long-held BTC barely budged, suggesting old whales saw no reason to abandon their positions
3/ Once that supply appeared, demand vanished instantly
Stablecoin inflows froze, creation slowed, and ETF flows flattened
Even treasury-buy interest faded
With fewer new dollars entering the system, markets lacked the cushion to absorb steady selling
4/ Orderbooks then revealed the real weakness
Depth evaporated at random intervals, spreads widened, and medium-sized orders caused oversized moves
Some exchanges saw brief “ghost-town” moments with almost no resting asks
The market was functioning, but barely
5/ Derivatives shifted in lockstep
Open interest shrank, funding dipped negative, and traders piled into downside protection
Implied vol climbed while skew leaned bearish, not because traders were shorting
But because nobody wanted to take directional exposure in thin liquidity
6/ By the time spot weakness became obvious, institutions had already stepped away
- BTC ETFs lost nearly $4B
- ETH ETFs shed around $2B
- OTC desks saw minimal flows
Only SOL and XRP ETFs posted modest inflows, hinting at rotation rather than new capital entering the ecosystem
7/ Macro added uncertainty instead of clarity
Markets price an ~86% chance of a December cut, global easing accelerates, and QT ends soon
But strong labor data and sticky inflation keep the Fed cautious, leaving crypto stuck between incoming liquidity and delayed confirmation
8/ This produced a strange environment:
Thin liquidity, hesitant buyers, and slow selling
No capitulation, no frenzy – just distribution
In conditions like this, boredom becomes pressure
Market can decay quietly when no one steps in with conviction
9/ What comes next hinges on whether inflows return
Long-term factors remain supportive, but near-term structure stays fragile
With weak funding, rising exchange balances, and extreme fear, momentum is limited
Until a real catalyst appears, expect drift and uneven recovery
4.904
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