Why Iâm buying $COIN but not $CRCL now.
Let's first look at the basic matrix (photo).
From a trading perspective, we can ignore the Circleâs extremely high PE, as trading is all about momentum and hot money. However, as I have sold my $CRCL too early and itâs mentally hard to buy it back, Iâm considering buying $COIN as a fundamental play.
Per Circleâs IPO filings, Coinbase receives fully 50% of the interest income on currently ~$61B USDC reserve (after Circleâs base costs). Coinbase earns more if users hold USDC on the Coinbase platform, and slightly less for off-platform circulation â but broadly, Coinbase gets ~50% of USDC reserve income in most cases.
Coinbase earned $297âŻmillion in USDC interest revenue in just the latest quarter (Q1 2025). In Q1 2025, stablecoin interest accounted for roughly 15% of Coinbaseâs total revenue (>$297M of $2.03B)
As part of restructuring their USDC partnership, Coinbase also obtained an equity stake in Circle. According to disclosures, Coinbase received ~8.4âŻmillion shares of Circle (presumably Class A) in late 2023. That stake is now worth on the order of $1.6â1.7âŻbillion at Circleâs recent ~$200 stock price. This is a substantial hidden asset on Coinbaseâs balance sheet. (For context, Coinbaseâs entire market cap is ~$60B, so the Circle stake alone might equal ~3% of Coinbaseâs value
I donât expect CRCL to be that strong, but now I realize Iâm wrong. I will start buying $COIN as TradFiMoney finds some crypto proxy on the stock market. $COIN will still be strong in the foreseeable future. I may also consider $HOOD as well.

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