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Polymarket's Practical Guide: My Betting Philosophy and Survival Rules To be honest, when I first heard that Polymarket was going to issue a token, my first reaction was: here we go again, another frenzy of token farming. But when I actually started interacting on Polymarket, I realized this is not just a simple "volume game." It is a comprehensive test of information, judgment, strategy, and human nature. And now, with Polymarket officially confirming that it will launch the POLY token and airdrop in 2026, this game has become even more real. What makes Polymarket different? I have played many token farming projects, and most of them are like this: Connect wallet → Make a few trades → Wait for airdrop → Sell tokens and leave But Polymarket is different. It requires you to truly participate, think critically, and take real risks. You can't just inflate the trading volume because: The platform will identify witch attacks and volume inflation behavior. Airdrop criteria may include profitability, not just trading volume. The difference between real participants and bots will be very obvious. What does this mean? It means you need a real strategy, not just mindless volume inflation. My Five Strategies After delving into Polymarket's mechanisms and community gameplay, I have summarized five strategies. Each strategy has its own pros and cons, suitable for different capital amounts and risk preferences. Strategy One: Volume Inflation (Quick Account Setup) Core Idea: Find high liquidity, low spread markets, and place orders back and forth. Specific Approach: Find events with high TVL, buy at the best bid and sell at the best ask with a difference of 0.01. Place limit orders, and after a transaction, immediately place a reverse order. Repeat the operation to quickly accumulate trading volume. Advantages: Trading volume increases quickly. Can quickly complete the "initialization" of the account. Disadvantages: There is slippage (each 0.01 price difference is a cost). Easily identified as volume inflation behavior. Requires frequent operations. My Experience: This method is suitable for the "account setup" stage. Use small funds (like 100-200 USDC) to quickly inflate to a certain trading volume, making the account look like an "active user." But don't overdo it, or you risk being flagged as a witch. Strategy Two: Arbitrage (Low-Risk Profit) Core Idea: Find events that are highly likely to occur, buy low, sell high. Specific Approach: Look for events that are "almost certain" (like "Will Trump be inaugurated on January 20, 2025?"). Buy Yes when the price is below 0.95. Sell when the price rises to 0.98-0.99, or wait for settlement. Advantages: Relatively low risk. Can genuinely make a profit. Fits the profile of a "rational trader." Disadvantages: Trading volume increases slowly. Requires capital to wait for settlement. May encounter black swan events. My Experience: This is my favorite strategy. I choose targets with "monthly returns above 3%", equivalent to an annualized 36%. For example, if an event settles at the end of the month and the current price is 0.97, I buy in and wait for settlement to earn 0.03 in profit. This is not just token farming, but true "predictive market investment." Strategy Three: Investment (Stable Returns) Core Idea: Treat Polymarket as a "high-yield investment product." Specific Approach: Find events that are highly unlikely to occur (like "Will BTC rise to 250,000 before October 31?"). Buy No, locking in 3-5% monthly returns. Wait for settlement and take the money. Advantages: Stable returns (monthly 3-5%, annualized 36-60%). No need for frequent operations. Truly "making predictions," not just inflating volume. Disadvantages: Long capital occupation time. May encounter unexpected events (though the probability is low). Contributes little to trading volume. My Experience: I allocate a portion of my funds (like 30-40%) to this strategy. I choose events that are "almost impossible to happen," buy No, and then forget about it until settlement. The benefit of this strategy is: even without an airdrop, I still earn real profits. Strategy Four: Follow the Experts (Reduce Cognitive Costs) Core Idea: Copy the homework, bet alongside the top traders on the profit leaderboard. Specific Approach: Go to Polymarket's Leaderboard to find the highest-earning traders. See which markets they are betting on. Follow their bets (but understand the logic, don’t follow blindly). Advantages: Reduces cognitive costs. Can learn from the strategies of experts. Increases the probability of profit. Disadvantages: May follow too late (the price has already changed). Need to understand the logic of the experts. Cannot rely entirely on them. My Experience: I regularly check a few expert accounts, like @coconutcurry (who specializes in price predictions). But I don’t follow blindly; I first understand why they are betting that way, then decide whether to follow. Strategy Five: Liquidity Mining (Passive Income) Core Idea: Earn Polymarket rewards by providing liquidity. Specific Approach: Place limit orders on the order book (both buy and sell orders). Keep orders as close to the market midpoint price as possible. Wait for transactions while earning liquidity rewards. Advantages: Can earn additional liquidity rewards. Helps stabilize the market, fitting the profile of a "contributor." May gain extra weight during airdrops. Disadvantages: Need to understand the order book mechanism. Requires frequent price adjustments. Rewards may not be high (minimum $1 is required for distribution). My Experience: This is a "nice-to-have" strategy. If you have already bet in a market, consider placing some limit orders at the same time, as they may execute and earn liquidity rewards. Capital Management: Don’t Put All Your Eggs in One Basket My capital allocation strategy is as follows: 30% for volume inflation: quick account setup, accumulating trading volume. 40% for arbitrage/investment: low-risk profit, genuinely making money. 20% for following experts: learning from expert strategies to improve win rates. 10% for liquidity mining: earning additional rewards. The benefits of this approach are: Even if airdrop criteria favor a certain behavior, I won’t be completely left out. Even without an airdrop, I can still earn money through arbitrage and investment. Risk diversification, so I won’t lose everything due to one failed strategy. Pitfall Guide: Don’t Make These Mistakes After interacting on Polymarket for a few months, I’ve encountered many pitfalls. Here are a few lessons: 1. Don’t trade directly with USDC. Polymarket uses USDC.e (the bridged version on the Polygon chain). If you transfer USDC directly, the platform will automatically convert it, incurring slippage. Correct Approach: Transfer USDC.e directly from the exchange to Polygon, or convert through Infinex/Bungee. 2. Don’t frequently inflate the same market. If you inflate volume back and forth in the same market, you can easily be identified as a witch. Correct Approach: Diversify across multiple markets, interacting moderately in each. 3. Don’t just inflate volume without profit. If your account only has trading volume but is consistently losing money, it may not be considered a "valuable user." Correct Approach: At least maintain a break-even point or make a small profit. 4. Don’t ignore the Post feature. Polymarket has a Post feature similar to Twitter. Occasionally posting a few updates makes the account look like a "real person." 5. Don’t buy above 0.99. Unless it’s for volume inflation, don’t buy when the price is already high (above 0.99). Because even if it settles, your profit will be minimal, and you’ll be exposed to black swan risks. Thoughts on Airdrops Polymarket has confirmed it will issue tokens and airdrops, but specific criteria have not yet been announced. Based on my observations and community discussions, possible criteria include: Trading volume: total trading amount, number of trades. Profitability: net profit, win rate. Diversity: number of markets participated in, different types of markets. Liquidity contribution: liquidity provided, executed limit orders. Time factor: early users, sustained activity. My strategy is: don’t just focus on one metric, but participate comprehensively. Because no one knows what the final criteria will be. If you only inflate trading volume but have poor profitability, you may be considered a witch. If you only do arbitrage but have low trading volume, you may be seen as an "inactive user." The best strategy is to become a "true predictive market participant." In conclusion Polymarket is not just a token farming project; it is a truly valuable predictive market platform. The parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, ICE, has invested $2 billion, and its valuation has reached $9 billion. This is not an "air project" but an infrastructure that is changing the information market. So my advice is: don’t just treat it as a token farming project, but truly understand the logic of predictive markets and learn how to make better judgments. Even without an airdrop, you can earn real profits through arbitrage and investment. And if there is an airdrop, that’s just the icing on the cake. This is the most stable way to play. @Polymarket