Another excellent indicator from Sminston!
Do "Bitcoin" Google searches indicate where we are in the cycle?
- - -
The two are absolutely correlated:
Max Correlation= 0.76
Lag < 30 days (very short lag of price after searches)
Here we're seeing the monthly price and estimated monthly Google searches for "Bitcoin" (arbitrary values; they are likely not accurate in the absolute sense, but the correlation between both metrics are the same - here I used 185M searches between May-June 2021).
The resulting log-residuals plots, when fitting a power law to the bottom 50% of the data for each, shows we are:
a. crab-crawling with price
b. not seeing any real FOMO yet as indicated by Google searches (just a couple of small bumps)
The strongest FOMO bubble by Google searches was the peak on December 18, 2017... 2021 had a similar online hype bubble, but diluted compared to 2017.
What will 2025-2026 bring? To me, this indicates we are still NOT in a bull market - if you can believe it.
Get your spacesuit on.🚀
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