As I mentioned in this video, onshore RMB is unlikely to be launched because the yield on Chinese government bonds is very low while the demand is huge, reflecting the issue of lying flat and earning interest, as well as financial inefficiency.
Offshore RMB may be launched soon.
1. Initiatives like the Belt and Road are settled in RMB, and a large amount of offshore RMB is not under central bank control. From the perspective of stabilizing the exchange rate, it may be possible to issue it.
2. Allowing overseas players to purchase offshore RMB reduces selling pressure, which is beneficial for the internationalization of RMB.
Recently, brokerages have started frequently releasing research reports on stablecoins. A report from Huatai disclosed that, according to Chainanalysis on-chain data analysis, the trade transaction amount processed by stablecoins in Yiwu exceeded 10 billion USD as early as 2023.
The director recalled the unfortunate failure of the ecological project Trust Reserve two years ago. According to discussions with the project founder, at that time, the monthly transaction volume processed through CNHC by Yiwu merchants had already reached the equivalent of 80 million USD, with an estimated market share of about 5-10%. Looking back at the data now, it is very real. Two years have passed in the blink of an eye, and stablecoins used by Yiwu merchants are still firmly dominated by USDT, while the RMB stablecoin is nowhere to be seen. Looking at the situation, by August this year, comrades should have regained their freedom.
What saddens the director is not only that a group of entrepreneurs and fighters have had their youth worn away in waiting, but more painfully, the historical process of RMB internationalization has been delayed.
As Governor Zhou Xiaochuan commented, USD stablecoins may promote dollarization, and RMB stablecoins can similarly promote RMB internationalization.
In the international market, USD stablecoins have already progressed to national legislation/company listings/major players entering the market. In contrast, domestically, homes have been stolen, and we cannot continue to pretend not to see what is happening right under our noses. We still have a lot of work to do.
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