Bad luck in trading and periods of headwinds
I believe anyone can encounter this, and some people can maintain their composure while others may fall into despair. What is the difference between them?
Friends who know me well understand that I never consider myself to be investing but rather speculating. Speculation carries risks similar to gambling. If you want low-risk investments, you should consider bonds, long-term investments, or something like YT DCA ADA.
In speculation, even trades with a positive expected value often face consecutive losses. For example, in my experience, my swing trading strategy assumes a win rate of about 40%, and if the win-loss ratio is above 5, it sounds quite good.
However, in actual trading, you will always encounter winning and losing streaks. A 40% win rate means:
- About an 8% chance of experiencing 5 consecutive losses
- About a 5% chance of experiencing 6 consecutive losses
- About a 3% chance of experiencing 7 consecutive losses
- About a 2% chance of experiencing 8 consecutive losses
So how many losses can you endure? Can your mood handle it? Can you get through the phase of self-doubt and question the correctness of your strategy execution? These are all very important. The most crucial aspect is always money management; staying alive in the market and not being eliminated by it is the core.
▪️ Accepting Emotions
Accept that it’s okay to feel bad, but you need to accept it rather than escape from it. Accept your imperfections and those of trading. Taking appropriate breaks to improve your mood can help you remain rational while trading. Go out for a walk, chat with family and friends, enjoy good food, and appreciate the beauty of the world beyond trading.
▪️ Keeping an Open Mind
Although this goes against human nature, you should keep an open mind and share your losses with others. This helps you face yourself honestly, rather than trading for the sake of pride or face. The goal of trading is to make money, achieve self-fulfillment, improve your life, and help more people in need. Always remind yourself of this.
▪️ Rationally Assessing the Feasibility of Strategies
The ability to endure consecutive losses, establish good trading rules, and manage your capital is essential. Be aware of whether you are currently in a headwind or tailwind period. A long-term correct mindset and position management will lead you in the right direction.
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