Some Random Thoughts:
First, some things you should get out of your head:
1) 4 yr cycle likely over w. ETFs, no longer a thing. Should have constant flows/outflows
2) Bc of this flow, $ no longer flows from $BTC to big caps->mid caps-> shitcoins
3) $ETH no longer consensus but should do ok in short term
4) BTC.D will continue to creep up higher and higher. Sure, we'll get some moments of pause (hopefully now) but flippening likely never happens at this rate. Don't think we see such extreme moves on BTC.d like we did in the past, either.
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Other things:
5) Mental models of how $ flows should mostly be: BTC up big= bigger well known memes usually do well. In this case, we're seeing stuff like moodeng/pepe/etc take the lead, along w. some other crushed AI coins from before (Virtual).
6) Better to go with the flow instead of trying to get ahead of the narrative. Before, it was a lot easier to predict 'what's next'. These days, it's harder. What I'm trying to say is: It's better to buy dips on the leaders (aka virtual/ $pengu) vs. trying to accumulate coins like $FET and waiting
7) More on that- opportunity cost is important and your $ and where it stands is also important. Capital allocation is more important during bullish environments
8) Your job is to find the LEADERS in this altcoin market, not the market average. You're not a genius if your coin is up 10% and the rest of the market is up 10%. You want to find those that are up 50% on the day.
9) Best to always bet on the leaders, not the laggards/beta. Sure, you can buy some beta but it's usually best to buy the one that has the best flow. You would be much better off buying Virtual + AVA instead of hoping coins like arc/ai16z catch up. I've made that mistake a lot.
10) You are not early but you are also not late. There are plenty of good trades to be had. Coins can still do a few x even from these levels and not reach ATH.
11) Don't be delusional about targets. Yeah, some of these will break ATH but the majority will not. There's no marginal buyer for a lot of these at a certain point and it's best to keep yourself grounded.
12) Onchain will come back but it's going to take a GOAT like moment for that to happen. It's still the same 10 retards trading $ with each other or just max extracting. I know many who have lost a lot the last few months and the fact that gork couldn't get above 100m is pretty telling. You need outside $ to come in before you see gigantic runners and a more PvE environment.
13) Stay on your toes and have some cash ready to buy dips; we should still see more volatility over the coming weeks. You don't necessarily have to chase every move but you can also be a bit more aggressive in these types of conditions- they are more forgiving.
14) Keep yourself in check with your IRL habits- sleep, work out, diet, relationships. This is important from a longevity standpoint.
15) You're not a genius because you're making $ in these environments. You are not a trading god and you probably haven't even gotten better. Be humble. Good luck.

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