Shorting CRCL and longing COIN may be the trade of the year but isn’t without risk
– Circle is now worth more than half of Coinbase (55b vs 78b)
– Coinbase made $1.2B last year. Circle made $18M
– Circle execs dumped 75% of their holdings at $31
– Coinbase makes more money off Circle’s core product (USDC) than Circle
BUT
– More unlocks aren’t happening until December (27M more vs. 36M float today)
– Stablecoin mania is a freight train. shorting tesla has ruined smarter men than I
–Circle is at $236 today. This logic was equally true at $120 and would be at $1,200
“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine” ~Buffett
Valuation is a feeling. Supply is a fact.
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