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MilliΞ
A must know for anyone who enjoys making predictions with completely unnecessary resolution risk attached
The Polymarket rule clarification pattern works like this:
If the odds of a market strongly favor the outcome which Poly believes it should resolve to, no clarification will be issued.
If the odds of a market favor the opposing side, or if the odds leave room for interpretation, like 60/40 or 80/20 in favor of the outcome Polymarket wants but not definitively, they will issue a clarification or post a notice to anticipate additional context.
Most Poly badge holders, UMA voters, and insiders know this, some may even be given advanced notice of a coming clarification even if the details are withheld.
Which is why the odds for such markets never get to >95 certainty for the outcome Polymarket opposes, even if the rules seem to fully agree with that result.
Recognizing this simple pattern is essential to avoid getting rugged by Poly’s unpredictable resolution process.
MilliΞ
It seems that Polymarket won’t issue a clarification for this market.
Funny enough, the anticipation or expectation of clarifications is just as problematic as the clarifications themselves imo.
Users have become accustomed to rules being altered so much that they no longer perceive the rules as written to be what a market settles on.
For @Trueo_, we never issue clarifications. Market rules are immutable, what you see is what you get.
We treat event contracts as actually contracts between traders, settled based on the rules as they were when the market was deployed.
Aside from preservation of integrity or for the sake of consistency, we actually do this for practical reasons as well.
Our upcoming feature will allow any user to create their own market which will then be resolved by our oracle, and this concept is fundamentally incompatible with post-hoc rule alterations or clarifications.
Imagine if we simply let market creators, who could be anyone, alter the nature of a contract after traders have positioned.
The product would never work, and no one would ever touch our app.
The rules for an event contract must be immutable for that contract to be scalable, resolvable, and fair.
Simple as that.
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