Ethereum's last resort narrative is "pivot" to a Bitcoin L2.
Unpopular take: Ethereum's last resort narrative is "pivot" to a Bitcoin L2.
Bitcoin owns the 'store of value' narrative, but $ETH remains a more productive asset in terms of native staking yield and as the most liquid collateral in DeFi.
But the landscape is changing.
BTCfi is quietly yet rapidly expanding, with @babylonlabs_io's BTC restaking protocol climbing to 6th place by TVL ($4.9B), overtaking Uniswap's TVL.
As a result, BTC is becoming a more productive asset in DeFi.
On Aave, BTC wrappers contribute ~$6B+ of supply, compared to $10B+ for ETH derivatives.
I believe that the trend will continue and BTC wrappers will overtake ETH assets in DeFi. Especially if BTC continues to outperform ETH.
With just 12% of the total BTC supply in DeFi, BTC would surpass the entire market cap of $ETH.
Most Bitcoin DeFi protocols are relatively new and untested. However, they grow stronger each day as the Lindy effect builds.
Still, hardcore Bitcoin bulls and maxis are unwilling to use their passive BTC holdings productively due to centralization, hack and bug risks.
And rightfully so.
Recent changes in wBTC ownership was a big shock, leading to the growth of another centralized BTC wrapper by Coinbase.
Not good. I still hold most of my BTC on Bitcoin.
Yet EF's recently emphasized values of "censorship resistance, open source innovation, privacy, and security" perfectly align with Bitcoin and BTC holders.
Truth to be told, that even BTC maxis would prefer holding BTC on Ethereum vs any other alt-L1 due to Ethereum's decentralization and security if yield opportunities are good enough.
Examples of BTC whales preferring BTC ETFs over self-storage prove that maximalism has limits.
Thus I believe Ethereum could take a lesson from @Stacks recent launch of 'trust minimized' sBTC and build the best and most decentralized bridge and wrapper for BTC on Ethereum.
(Note that since the infographic above was created, BTC MC grew to $1.9T while ETH's dropped to just $221B!!!)
I understand this might be unpopular, but Ethereum's top security and censorship resistance are less important for most DeFi natives.
Even if RWAs and tokenization picks up massively, it might not save $ETH.
As @samkazemian explains, ETH settlement guarantees are useful mostly for assets without issuers.
For those with issuers, like RWAs, settlement depends on the issuer meeting liabilities on all chains. $BUIDL on ETH is part of Blackrock's liabilities.
However, Ethereum's top security and decentralization are crucial for long-term BTC holders looking to do more with their Bitcoin.
And no matter how much EF scales the L1, the L1 will never be faster than Solana or Sui.
Overall, I see a continuous growth of BTC wrappers on Ethereum but those solutions are sub-optimal and have many risks.
Ethereum could acknowledge this and build infra for $BTC to become the most productive asset this way aligning the top 2 crypto communities in the process.




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