I shorted ETH at 1800 This wave is obviously being driven by those old foxes from the Freemasons, do they think I can't see it? Laughable, within three days there will definitely be a crash, and then the retail investors will be crying again. Don't blame me for not warning you newbies, smart people have already shorted with me, got it? ETH will definitely be between 800-1200. Why? Let's watch and see 🧵 The problem with ETH has always been strategic decision-making issues related to ETH's structure/narrative, from the earliest transition from PoW to PoS to the later L2 rollup battle over nearly 10 years. ETH's narrative has always been changing and becoming more introverted, from the earliest sharding plan to the later zk rollup plan, the technical narrative has driven the creation of countless empty L2 cities, we know the four kings well. ☀️starknet, zksync, arbitrium, and OP The result is starknet has made no progress, zksync secretly takes money from the treasury, OP is building L3, and arb is the one doing the "best" in the ecosystem. Earlier? The thunder of ETH was actually buried from PoW to PoS. 🌱"First Round: ETH Dividend Transformation" What is the core premise of the dividend transformation? I have always been looking for a good word to describe it, whether it's [entity anchor chain] or [physical miner anchor point], actually the term @thecryptoskanda {gold standard} describes it well. The sunk cost of depreciation of electricity/miners in the real world is the cost line, different countries, different policies, different enterprise scales have different cost lines, a PoW token from manufacturer→distributor→logistics→mine→pool→exchange, there are many upstream and downstream. Not including power grid companies, energy intermediaries, mine hosting, water cooling equipment, heat dissipation accessories. The cost price of entering at different times is different, and the upfront cost of mining and the reward feeling of daily gold coin distribution (which is actually also a transmission chain) is huge, early ETH was mainly dominated by Chinese miners, which actually made it easier to create a tighter community. Through the sunk cost of the gold standard -> create ETH's value support line = so there is the so-called shutdown price -> market psychological suggestion After the PoS era, validators only need to stake ETH (no hard cost), and can "mine, sell, withdraw" infinitely, the interest chain is broken, the sunk cost of the gold standard is converted to 0 cost staking, staked ETH can only provide 3-4% yield, which is far less than Solana's 5-6% coin standard. In summary: Dividend transformation failure = gold standard cost line becomes PoS's 0 cost 🌱【Second Round: Why did the split fail?】 Technical architecture absolutely determines the failure of the economic model's split mechanism + loss of effective upstream mode from L1 to L2 Actually, there are several reasons /multi-chain liquidity dispersion /L2 technology limits some like OP have challenge periods /Gas cost transfer /all data is public, unable to operate in a black box /ETH community is too fancy, not grounded /restking's tail is not removed, water is not retained No matter what kind of plate, to do it long-term, it must meet three points (information black box/operable human intervention/dynamic balance) -> The plate needs to do very simple things, 1) how to have continuous increments 2) how to have more information endorsement => First, let's talk about restaking The problem with restking is that ETH after "interest-bearing asset" transformation is not directly invested back into the ecosystem In other words, ETH after "interest-bearing asset" transformation is no longer ETH, but becomes USDT to speculate on different chains, the released liquidity cannot be replenished into the ETH ecosystem You can calculate, staking 32 ETH can get an annualized 3% return, if this 3% return can bring you 6-10% return on other chains every month, then your actual annualized is not worth 3%, the sedimentary funds are actually not on the ETH chain, a plate with unrestricted outflow is dangerous So in plate studies, Huajiao will always emphasize "cut the head and tail, retain the water in the middle" if the tail is not removed, continuous outflow is dangerous => Layer2 technology limitations and liquidity flow contradictions First, the four kings: starknet, zksync, arbitrium, and OP User funds are dispersed to multiple Layer2 chains (such as Base, zkSync), the proportion of main chain TVL dropped from 80% in 2021 to 40% in 2024, causing serious liquidity fragmentation, secondly, Optimism, Arbitrum, etc. allocate fees to their own token holders, rather than upstream ETH, which causes "The king is not king, the minister is not minister, the father is not father, the son is not son" When the father cannot manage the son, then it is the father's problem Secondly, the split plate attempts to deploy through multiple chains, but the interoperability between Layer1 and Layer2 is insufficient, the efficiency of fund scheduling is low, unable to uniformly improve the liquidity of each sub-chain from the perspective of liquidity, in the end, the liquidity of one chain cannot be built up, everyone dies together Maintaining high levels of L1 gas is actually more beneficial for L2 powder split plate construction, here we have to go back, L1's own gas usage cannot be improved due to lack of use cases, then you L2 don't expect to improve gas (use cases like defi cannot long-term step on the right foot with the left foot, etc.) Over time, even the sweetest fruits will rot... whether it rots naturally or someone hastens its rot, it always rots, once rotten it cannot be eaten, cannot be wanted, it must be abandoned, this is the failure of the split plate => Exquisite community and ungrounded developer path dependency Excessive pursuit of "technical orthodoxy" (such as ZK proof, decentralization), leading to application scenarios detached from real needs, technology has never been high and mighty, but down-to-earth, daily technical revolution, all are doing middleware business, not to C business, community is still community, people have long changed VC-led "halal projects" have inflated valuations, spanning several years, puA for several years, very few real users, this circle is full of smart people, no fools anymore The three major dead ends of ETH plate failure🟰 Gold standard price anchor replaced by POS + L2 and Restking's "tail not flowing water" + overly halal community value So, are you still shorting ETH?